Economy
The macroeconomic core of the digital twin — 95 indicators, of which the blocks below are the ones policy moves first. Every simulation solves for the deviation from these levels rather than forecasting them.
Demo simulation — not an official forecast. The baseline economy is dimensionally correct and in the right neighbourhood of published Australian aggregates, but it is not an official extract. Every relationship is calibrated rather than estimated by this project. Results are scenario estimates, not predictions.
Output and prices
The aggregate accounts, and the price level that determines what income is worth.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | $2.88tn | +4.7% | High |
| Real GDP (chain volume, annualised) | $2.56tn | +2% | High |
| Real GDP growth | 2.00% | flat | High |
| Real GDP per capita | $92,100 | +0.7% | High |
| Labour productivity growth | 0.90% | flat | Medium |
| Output gap | -0.20% | flat | Low |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2.90% | -0.1pp | High |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 2.80% | -0.1pp | High |
Labour market
Employment, slack and wages — the channel through which the macroeconomy reaches most households.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.20% | flat | High |
| Underemployment rate | 6.20% | flat | High |
| Labour force participation rate | 66.90% | -0.06pp | High |
| Employed persons | 14.9m | +1.3% | High |
| Average hours worked per employed person | 32.6 | flat | High |
| Wage Price Index growth | 3.40% | -0.05pp | High |
| Real wage growth | 0.50% | flat | High |
| National minimum wage | $25 | +3.5% | High |
| Job vacancies | 330.0k | 0% | Medium |
Monetary policy
The policy rate that anchors every other interest rate.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA cash rate target | 3.85% | flat | High |
Credit
The price and availability of money, and the borrowing capacity that gates housing demand.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average outstanding variable mortgage rate | 6.05% | flat | High |
| Average new owner-occupier lending rate | 6.15% | flat | High |
| Average business lending rate | 6.70% | flat | High |
| Average term deposit rate | 4.15% | flat | High |
| Housing credit outstanding | $2.35tn | +5% | High |
| Median borrowing capacity, dual-income buyer | $720,000 | +3.4% | Medium |
| Total credit growth | 5.40% | flat | High |
Business
Investment, revenue and firm distress.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private business investment | $372.0bn | +4% | High |
| Business confidence index | 4.0 | flat | Low |
| Retail turnover | $435.0bn | +4.3% | High |
| Business insolvencies | 13.6 | 0% | Medium |
Public finances
Receipts, payments, the balance and the debt stock they accumulate into.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commonwealth receipts | $738.0bn | +4.8% | High |
| Commonwealth payments | $762.0bn | +4.9% | High |
| Underlying cash balance | -$24.0bn | -2pp | High |
| Commonwealth net debt | $566.0bn | +5.5% | High |
| Individual income tax receipts | $335.0bn | +5.2% | High |
| Company tax receipts | $138.0bn | +3.4% | High |
| GST receipts | $96.0bn | +4.4% | High |
| Defence expenditure | $58.0bn | +6% | High |
Trade
Exports, imports and the external balance.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports of goods and services | $702.0bn | +3.2% | High |
| Imports of goods and services | $684.0bn | +4% | High |
| Current account balance | -$18.0bn | flat | High |
Property
Values, rents, vacancy and the stock–flow balance of housing.
| Indicator | Level | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median dwelling value, national | $852,000 | +4% | Medium |
| Median advertised rent | $660 | +4.2% | Medium |
| Rental vacancy rate | 1.60% | +0.05pp | Medium |
| Occupied dwelling stock | 11.4k | +1.5% | High |
| Cumulative dwelling shortfall vs underlying demand | 175.0k | +22pp | Low |
| Home ownership rate | 66.00% | -0.2pp | High |
| Dwelling price to household income ratio | 8.100 | flat | Medium |
| Investor share of new housing finance | 37.00% | flat | High |