Australia digital twin
The baseline state of the economy and society as of 2026-07-01. 95 indicators across 17 entities. Every simulation solves for the deviation from this — the twin itself is never a forecast this product makes.
Demo simulation — not an official forecast. The baseline economy is dimensionally correct and in the right neighbourhood of published Australian aggregates, but it is not an official extract. Every relationship is calibrated rather than estimated by this project. Results are scenario estimates, not predictions.
Macroeconomy
The aggregate accounts: output, prices, and the income of the nation as a whole.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | $2.88tn | +4.7%/yr | High |
| Real GDP (chain volume, annualised)Trend growth set to the long-run average of population growth plus productivity. | $2.56tn | +2%/yr | High |
| Real GDP growth | 2.00% | flat | High |
| Real GDP per capita | $92,100 | +0.7%/yr | High |
| Labour productivity growth | 0.90% | flat | Medium |
| Output gapNot directly observable. Inferred, and used only as an intermediate in the labour and price blocks. | -0.20% | flat | Low |
| Headline CPI inflationBaseline drifts gently toward the middle of the 2–3% target band. | 2.90% | -0.1pp/yr | High |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 2.80% | -0.1pp/yr | High |
Households
11.2 million dwellings' worth of income, spending, debt and assets, disaggregated into 64 cohorts.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| HouseholdsMillions of households. | 11.2m | +1.4%/yr | High |
| Household gross disposable income | $1.55tn | +4.9%/yr | High |
| Household final consumption expenditure | $1.58tn | +4.6%/yr | High |
| Household saving ratio | 4.50% | flat | High |
| Household debt to disposable income | 185.00% | flat | High |
| Household interest payments to disposable income | 9.80% | flat | High |
| Household net worth | $17.40tn | +5.2%/yr | Medium |
| Consumer sentiment index100 = neutral. Values below 100 indicate pessimists outnumber optimists. | 92.0 | flat | Medium |
| Employee household living cost index | 100.0 | +3.1%/yr | High |
Businesses
Firm revenue, investment, hiring and margins, differentiated by exposure to rates, wages and demand.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private business investment | $372.0bn | +4%/yr | High |
| Business confidence indexNet balance. Zero is the long-run average. | 4.0 | flat | Low |
| Retail turnover | $435.0bn | +4.3%/yr | High |
| Business insolvenciesThousands per year. | 13.6 | 0%/yr | Medium |
Government
Commonwealth receipts and payments, the underlying cash balance and net debt.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commonwealth receipts | $738.0bn | +4.8%/yr | High |
| Commonwealth payments | $762.0bn | +4.9%/yr | High |
| Underlying cash balance | -$24.0bn | -2pp/yr | High |
| Commonwealth net debt | $566.0bn | +5.5%/yr | High |
| Individual income tax receipts | $335.0bn | +5.2%/yr | High |
| Company tax receipts | $138.0bn | +3.4%/yr | High |
| GST receipts | $96.0bn | +4.4%/yr | High |
| Defence expenditure | $58.0bn | +6%/yr | High |
Central bank
The policy rate and the transmission machinery that carries it into the economy.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA cash rate target | 3.85% | flat | High |
Banks & credit
Credit supply, lending and deposit rates, and the serviceability rules that gate borrowing capacity.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average outstanding variable mortgage rate | 6.05% | flat | High |
| Average new owner-occupier lending rate | 6.15% | flat | High |
| Average business lending rate | 6.70% | flat | High |
| Average term deposit rate | 4.15% | flat | High |
| Housing credit outstanding | $2.35tn | +5%/yr | High |
| Median borrowing capacity, dual-income buyerAssumes a 3 percentage point serviceability buffer over the assessed rate. | $720,000 | +3.4%/yr | Medium |
| Total credit growth | 5.40% | flat | High |
Property market
Dwelling values, rents, vacancy, turnover and the stock–flow balance of housing.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median dwelling value, national | $852,000 | +4%/yr | Medium |
| Median advertised rent | $660 | +4.2%/yr | Medium |
| Rental vacancy rate | 1.60% | +0.05pp/yr | Medium |
| Occupied dwelling stockMillions of dwellings. | 11.4k | +1.5%/yr | High |
| Cumulative dwelling shortfall vs underlying demandThousands of dwellings. Highly sensitive to the assumed household formation rate. | 175.0k | +22pp/yr | Low |
| Home ownership rate | 66.00% | -0.2pp/yr | High |
| Dwelling price to household income ratio | 8.100 | flat | Medium |
| Investor share of new housing finance | 37.00% | flat | High |
Labour market
Employment, unemployment, participation, hours and wages.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.20% | flat | High |
| Underemployment rate | 6.20% | flat | High |
| Labour force participation rateGentle downward drift from population ageing. | 66.90% | -0.06pp/yr | High |
| Employed personsMillions of persons. | 14.9m | +1.3%/yr | High |
| Average hours worked per employed person | 32.6 | flat | High |
| Wage Price Index growth | 3.40% | -0.05pp/yr | High |
| Real wage growth | 0.50% | flat | High |
| National minimum wageDollars per hour. | $25 | +3.5%/yr | High |
| Job vacancies | 330.0k | 0%/yr | Medium |
Construction sector
Approvals, commencements, completions, capacity and costs — the supply side of housing.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dwelling approvalsThousands of dwellings, annualised. | 178.0k | +2%/yr | High |
| Dwelling completionsThousands of dwellings, annualised. | 168.0k | +2%/yr | High |
| Residential construction cost index | 100.0 | +3.6%/yr | Medium |
| Construction employment | 1,290.0k | +1.2%/yr | High |
| Median development approval timeDays. Varies enormously by jurisdiction; a national median is indicative only. | 128.0 | flat | Low |
Healthcare
Public health expenditure, access, out-of-pocket costs and waiting pressure.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commonwealth health expenditure | $138.0bn | +5.6%/yr | High |
| GP bulk-billing rate | 78.00% | flat | Medium |
| Average annual out-of-pocket health cost | $1,420 | +4%/yr | Medium |
| Median elective surgery waitDays. | 49.0 | flat | Medium |
Education
School, tertiary and vocational funding, and international student flows.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commonwealth education expenditure | $62.0bn | +4.5%/yr | High |
| Net out-of-pocket childcare costDollars per hour after subsidy. | $5 | +3.5%/yr | Medium |
Energy
Retail energy prices, subsidies, carbon pricing and the generation mix.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail energy price level | 100.0 | +3%/yr | Medium |
| Average residential electricity bill | $1,920 | +3%/yr | Medium |
| Renewable share of electricity generation | 44.00% | +3pp/yr | High |
| National greenhouse gas emissionsMegatonnes CO₂-equivalent per year. | 435.0 | -1.8%/yr | Medium |
Transport
Fuel costs, public transport and freight, and commute burden.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail petrol priceDollars per litre, national average. | $2 | +2.5%/yr | Medium |
| Public infrastructure investmentAll levels of government, engineering and building construction. | $118.0bn | +3.5%/yr | Medium |
Trade
Exports, imports, the terms of trade and the exchange rate.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports of goods and services | $702.0bn | +3.2%/yr | High |
| Imports of goods and services | $684.0bn | +4%/yr | High |
| Current account balance | -$18.0bn | flat | High |
Migration
Permanent and temporary arrivals by stream, and their demographic composition.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resident populationMillions of persons. | 27.9m | +1.25%/yr | High |
| Net overseas migrationThousands of persons per year. | 260.0k | flat | High |
| Permanent migration programme | 185.0k | flat | High |
| International student visa holders | 650.0k | flat | High |
| Natural population increase | 105.0k | -2pp/yr | High |
Financial markets
Equity and bond markets, the exchange rate and household portfolio values.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade-weighted exchange rate index | 61.5 | flat | Medium |
| Domestic equity market indexRebased to 100 at the baseline date. Equity paths are the least reliable output in the model. | 100.0 | +5.5%/yr | Low |
| 10-year Australian government bond yield | 4.25% | flat | High |
| Total superannuation assets | $4.45tn | +6.5%/yr | High |
Social systems
Income support, poverty, inequality and the social outcome proxies.
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Social security and welfare expenditure | $285.0bn | +5.2%/yr | High |
| Total fertility rate | 1.580 | -0.01pp/yr | High |
| Gini coefficient, disposable income | 0.323 | flat | Medium |
| Relative poverty rate | 13.40% | flat | Medium |
| Child poverty rate | 16.60% | flat | Medium |
| Mortgagor households in housing stressHousing costs above 30% of gross income. Threshold measures are crude and sensitive to the cut-off. | 24.00% | flat | Low |
| Renter households in housing stress | 32.00% | flat | Low |
| Household financial stress indexConstructed 0–100 proxy. Higher means more stress. Not a measurement. | 46 | flat | Low |
| Modelled Wellbeing IndexA weighted composite of material and security proxies. Not a measure of happiness. | 59 | flat | Low |
| Prosperity IndexA weighted composite of nine material living-standard components. The level is a stated judgement about where Australia sits on each component; only the movement is a modelled result. | 58 | flat | Low |
| Household Economic Flexibility Score | 61 | flat | Low |
| Households at risk of homelessnessThousands of households. A risk proxy, not a count of people experiencing homelessness. | 122.0m | +2pp/yr | Low |