PolicySandbox.ai

Policy library

Starting points, not recommendations. Each scenario opens in the workspace where you can change any lever, any assumption and the horizon before drawing a conclusion.

Monetary policy

RBA raises rates 25bp

A single standard tightening step.

How far does one rate rise travel, and who feels it?

  • RBA cash rate4.10%
2 years

RBA raises rates 50bp

Two standard steps — the brief's reference scenario.

What does half a point cost mortgage holders, and what does it buy in inflation?

  • RBA cash rate4.35%
2 years

RBA cuts rates 25bp

A single standard easing step.

Who gains from a cut, and what does it do to house prices?

  • RBA cash rate3.60%
2 years

Immigration

Migration +100,000 a year

Net overseas migration rises from 260k to 360k.

Does a larger intake make the economy bigger, or just the country more crowded?

  • Net overseas migration360k/yr
10 years

Migration −100,000 a year

Net overseas migration falls from 260k to 160k.

How much rental relief does a smaller intake actually buy, and at what cost?

  • Net overseas migration160k/yr
10 years

Housing policy

Build 100,000 extra homes

Dwelling approvals lift from 178k to 278k a year.

How long does building more take to reach rents — and does the construction sector have the capacity?

  • Additional dwelling approvals278k/yr
10 years

$10bn a year for public housing

Social and community housing investment rises from $3bn to $13bn a year.

Is direct public construction a faster route to affordability than private supply incentives?

  • Public housing investment13.0$bn/yr
10 years

Restrict negative gearing

Rental losses quarantined against rental income, with the CGT discount cut to 25%.

Contested

Do investor tax changes lower prices, raise rents, or both?

  • Negative gearing restriction100index
  • Capital gains tax discount25%
10 years

First home buyer grant +$20,000

Average grant rises from $12,000 to $32,000.

Contested

Does a bigger grant help buyers, or does it end up in the price?

  • First home buyer grant32,000$
5 years

Planning reform package

Approval throughput up 30% and zoning capacity up 40%.

Can process and zoning reform deliver supply without new spending?

  • Planning approval speed130index
  • Zoning capacity140index
20 years

Combined housing package

Build more, invest publicly, reform planning, restrict investor tax concessions and moderate migration.

Does attacking housing affordability from every side work better than any single lever?

  • Additional dwelling approvals238k/yr
  • Public housing investment12.0$bn/yr
  • Planning approval speed125index
  • Zoning capacity135index
  • Negative gearing restriction60index
  • Net overseas migration220k/yr
20 years

Taxation

Income tax cut

The effective average income tax rate falls by one point — roughly $20bn a year.

How much of a tax cut reaches spending, and how much reaches inflation?

  • Average income tax rate15.9pp
5 years

Raise the GST to 12.5%

A 2.5 point rise in the GST rate.

Contested

What does broadening indirect tax do to prices, and who carries it?

  • GST rate12.5%
5 years

Company tax cut to 25%

A five point cut in the headline company tax rate.

Does a lower company tax rate pay for itself through investment?

  • Company tax rate25.0%
10 years

Labour

Minimum wage +5%

The national minimum wage rises from $24.95 to $26.20 an hour.

Contested

What does a real wage floor increase do to prices and to employment?

  • Minimum wage26.20$/hr
5 years

Social policy

Increase JobSeeker 25%

Unemployment income support rises by a quarter.

What does raising the lowest incomes do to poverty, and what does it cost?

  • JobSeeker payment125index
5 years

Near-universal childcare subsidy

The average subsidy rate rises from 62% to 90%.

Does cheaper childcare pay for itself through participation?

  • Childcare subsidy rate90%
10 years

Rent assistance +50%

Commonwealth Rent Assistance rises by half.

Does cash to renters relieve stress, or get captured by landlords?

  • Commonwealth Rent Assistance150index
5 years

Health

$10bn more for health

Commonwealth health expenditure rises by $10bn a year.

What does additional health funding buy, and how quickly?

  • Health expenditure148$bn
10 years

Education

Cut education spending 5%

Commonwealth education expenditure falls by 5%.

What are the measurable consequences of a funding cut, and over what horizon?

  • Education expenditure59$bn
10 years

Fiscal policy

Defence to 2.8% of GDP

Defence expenditure rises from $58bn to $80bn a year.

What is the domestic economic footprint of defence spending?

  • Defence expenditure80$bn
10 years

Cost-of-living package

Tax cut, energy relief, rent assistance and a childcare subsidy increase.

Does relieving household costs feed back into the inflation that caused them?

  • Average income tax rate16.4pp
  • Energy bill relief300$/household
  • Commonwealth Rent Assistance130index
  • Childcare subsidy rate72%
5 years

Fiscal consolidation

Spending restraint plus a higher effective tax rate, aimed at returning the budget to balance.

What does budget repair cost in growth, employment and household living standards?

  • Government spending743$bn
  • Average income tax rate17.6pp
10 years

Infrastructure

Infrastructure +$20bn a year

Public construction investment rises from $118bn to $138bn.

Does infrastructure investment relieve congestion faster than it competes with housing?

  • Infrastructure investment138$bn
10 years

Energy

Carbon price at $50/tonne

An economy-wide price on emissions, revenue shown gross.

Contested

What does pricing carbon cost households before compensation, and what does it abate?

  • Carbon price50$/tonne
20 years

Energy bill relief $500

A $500 per household annual rebate.

What does bill relief do to measured inflation, and what happens when it ends?

  • Energy bill relief500$/household
5 years